Financial Market Analysis
By Shawn R. Carpenter
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
CSCO
There is some chatter around that CSCO might be moving into the home electronics side of the business. While it is the end of the year, I am cautious of entering into positions before the new year, so it might be worth watching this one.
In the short term, the price has broken through a small bearish channel. It has been slowly pulling back, yet has found support at the previous resistance level of the bearish channel. POTENTIAL for a short term Head & Shoulders pattern to be forming, as with MANY other stocks out there. If you buy today, tomorrow, or Friday (best bet), look for target levels around 19.10-19.30, followed by 20.50. Stop loss would be a break of the new support level @ 15.47. ¶ 11:17:00 AM 0 comments
There is some chatter around that CSCO might be moving into the home electronics side of the business. While it is the end of the year, I am cautious of entering into positions before the new year, so it might be worth watching this one.In the short term, the price has broken through a small bearish channel. It has been slowly pulling back, yet has found support at the previous resistance level of the bearish channel. POTENTIAL for a short term Head & Shoulders pattern to be forming, as with MANY other stocks out there. If you buy today, tomorrow, or Friday (best bet), look for target levels around 19.10-19.30, followed by 20.50. Stop loss would be a break of the new support level @ 15.47. ¶ 11:17:00 AM 0 comments
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
SPX
The market is at an interesting crossroad. There are two potential Short Term (ST) scenarios that can develop. Currently, the SPX is in a bearish channel, as the market deteriorated since September. We are currently testing the upper resistance level of this channel. A break above this level would lead to a rise to a resistance area (1054)created by the bearish channel from earlier this year. Failure to break above this ST resistance area would lead way towards a new low, around 700.
Given yesterday's Fed move, the following rally, and today's reaction, I think we may head lower rather than breaking out. Again, it is the end of the year, and also a new beginning in 2009, so it will be interesting to see where we head in the meantime. Remember, we have a lot of problems still in the economy, which still has yet to see some clear signs of the clouds clearing. ¶ 3:38:00 PM 0 comments
The market is at an interesting crossroad. There are two potential Short Term (ST) scenarios that can develop. Currently, the SPX is in a bearish channel, as the market deteriorated since September. We are currently testing the upper resistance level of this channel. A break above this level would lead to a rise to a resistance area (1054)created by the bearish channel from earlier this year. Failure to break above this ST resistance area would lead way towards a new low, around 700.Given yesterday's Fed move, the following rally, and today's reaction, I think we may head lower rather than breaking out. Again, it is the end of the year, and also a new beginning in 2009, so it will be interesting to see where we head in the meantime. Remember, we have a lot of problems still in the economy, which still has yet to see some clear signs of the clouds clearing. ¶ 3:38:00 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
ROST and URBN
2008_12_15_08.JPG)
While the market rallied today, there are some very interesting opportunities out there. Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern are abound. The SPX seems to be breaking through a short term resistance level and should head higher, yet will be capped by a Midterm (MT) resistance level.
¶ 8:05:00 PM 0 comments
2008_12_15_08.JPG)
While the market rallied today, there are some very interesting opportunities out there. Reverse Head and Shoulders pattern are abound. The SPX seems to be breaking through a short term resistance level and should head higher, yet will be capped by a Midterm (MT) resistance level.
Regarding the 2 charts above, URBN looks like it might have potential to rise above the descending wedge pattern, partially confirmed by bullish divergences on the RSI and MACD. Breakout of the upper resistance level of the recent bearish channel (20.69) would suggest prices might rise to 22.75 and 24.55.
On ROST, the recent break above the prior resistance level, set in place since early Sept. 2008, suggests that price might reach 31.50, followed by an area between 33.40 and 34.
Friday, December 12, 2008
ABX
In the short term, ABX has been ranging in a downward channel since July of 2008. It has since broken out of this range. Also, there is a slight Head & Shoulders bottom forming, confirming an up move. Potential for the price to head higher towards 33.60, 35.75 and 40.60. Stop/loss would be a break of the old resistance/new support level at 27.25 ish level. ¶ 9:48:00 AM 0 comments
In the short term, ABX has been ranging in a downward channel since July of 2008. It has since broken out of this range. Also, there is a slight Head & Shoulders bottom forming, confirming an up move. Potential for the price to head higher towards 33.60, 35.75 and 40.60. Stop/loss would be a break of the old resistance/new support level at 27.25 ish level. ¶ 9:48:00 AM 0 comments
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
GLD
There has been recent speculation as to the future direction and economic significance on the price of gold. Basically, there was a "backwardation" in the futures price that lasted about 48 hours. Since then it has been in a "normal state". Given that we are in the bearish market and everything seems to be hinting to disaster, or so people think, the speculation that backwardation has upon the currency market and governments is indeed dangerous. However, there are others out there that say that this backwardation is nothing to be alarmed about and could be explained in other manners, such as the failure of banks that trade in gold, counter party risk, "hoarding of money", etc.
With the end of the year upon us and to keep the risk and book clean, I would suggest a long opportunity in gold in the short term. Over the last couple of months, GLD has been in a bearish channel, yet has reached a strong support area situated around 68.30 - 68.70 (highs between Feb - April of 2007). RSI is posting a bullish divergence. Expect the price to trade toward the top end of the bearish channel, 86.40. I would use a very short term stop loss at 78.50.
¶ 1:54:00 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Comcast losing the war?
Comcast (CSCSA) has broken a multi-year support level around the 17.50 level. Most recently, the short interest has risen drastically, by over 80%. Roughly 43 Million shares have been shorted in the month of November, to 96 Million.
Expect prices to reach the lower level of the downward bearish channel around 11.97 at first. Given the Short Interest, I would think that there is even further downside expected.
¶ 5:17:00 PM 0 comments
Comcast (CSCSA) has broken a multi-year support level around the 17.50 level. Most recently, the short interest has risen drastically, by over 80%. Roughly 43 Million shares have been shorted in the month of November, to 96 Million.Expect prices to reach the lower level of the downward bearish channel around 11.97 at first. Given the Short Interest, I would think that there is even further downside expected.
¶ 5:17:00 PM 0 comments
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