Market-Technicals

Financial Market Analysis

By Shawn R. Carpenter

Thursday, November 30, 2006
  Everyone is getting coal for Xmas


Everyone has been put on the naughty list....

And if so, you might make some $$$$

The energy sector has been putting up some good numbers as the price of oil rises of it's pullback from this summer's highs. Looking deeper into the sector, coal has been outperforming the last couple of trading sessions. Take a look at the Coal Group. Recent declines in line with the price of oil has left this group in oversold territory. With the downward trend already panned out, we are starting to see a rally off of the lows. Fibonacci retracements suggests prices could rally up to 399.012 (38.2% retracement from the high), followed by 428.846 (50%), and 458.679 (61.8%).
The best play in the space would be Peabody Energy (BTU). Looking at the BTU above, it almost mimics the groups. Look for Fibonacci retracements to be at 49.26 (38.2%), followed by 53.95 (50%), and 58.65 (68.1%). While I have given the 68.1% retracement levels on both, the main focus of this play should be taken to the 50% retracement levels. Selling at these levels would be highly suggested.

Names also to consider in this group would be:
ACI - Arch Coal Inc.
YCZ - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company
MEE - Massey Energy Co.
ANR - Alpha Natural Resources Inc.
 
Thursday, November 16, 2006
  Industrials still the way go to....

The S&P 500 Industrial Sector still seems like a safe play for this market. On the weekly chart above, you can notice the defined "cup and handle" formation that is a classic technical analysis formation which suggests higher prices are still to come. While this year has seen significant returns in this sector, it should provide more positive returns going forward.

Overall, the market seems to have given way to new highs in the DOW as well as a breached formation in the SPYs. The SPYs have broken it's upward trending channel that twas created over the last year or so. With the rally in the Spiders, coupled with early projections of a steady holiday shopping season, we might see the market trend higher.

However, there are still lingering issues that could derail this rally. Nuclear proliferation, a large US deficit, inverted yield curves, and an overall feeling that this market has been rallying for almost 3 years are still on the table with no clear indication of resolution. The recent Democrat Party win for the US Congress might also suggest where the market is headed once they come to grips of reality and what solutions they enact in this current political and economic environment.

Names to keep an eye on......

Personally I own REV.... possible contrarian play.. and it's only $1.59!!!
Silver and Gold mining companies.. RNO, PAAS, NTO have been in the portfolio with significant gains, possibility to add more down here.

PEIX!!! Looking good on the Alternative Fuel play.. Democrats could make a push for the country to shy away from foreign oil and thus would push more research and money into building a quality fossil fuel alternative industry.

Good Luck
 
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Market-Technicals is a Financial Market Trend and Research blog. Mainly utilizing technical analysis, the research composed is designed to capture market timing techniques, understanding how economic and political forces shape the market, and give speculation as to where the financial market is headed. Encompasing equities, index, sector, ETFs, commodities, and bonds; the expectations are to shed some light as to what "smart money" is thinking.
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