Market-Technicals

Financial Market Analysis

By Shawn R. Carpenter

Friday, February 24, 2006
  Mail Order Catalog Sector??

The Bridge Mail Order Catalog Sector (provided by Reuters Group plc.) seems to be breaking through some resistance levels as of late. Consolidation in the 123-132 range (Dec. '05 - Feb. '06) seems to be over and it is moving towards the upside. Recent price activity has broken above the upper Bollinger Band and should continue to move higher. Next major resistance level 138 could be tested in the next few weeks. Some of the major names in this sector are:

Blair Corporation (BL)
Collegiate Pacific Inc. (BOO)
Cabela's Inc. (CAB)
Coldwater Creek Inc. (CWTR)
J.Jill Group (JILL)
Excelligence Learning Corp. (LRNS)
PC Mall Inc. (MALL)
Mediabay Inc. (MBAY)
School Specialty (SCHS)
Sportsman Guide Inc. (SGDE)
Systemax Inc. (SYX)

However, we must note that the market as a whole seems to have found resistance in its rally. While we have seen multi-year highs on some of the major indexes (Dow Industrial Average hit a high of 11159.18, first time over 11,000 since 2001) the market has not responded to the upside with breadth. Geopolitical concerns weigh heavily on investors minds going forward; mainly:

1) Iraq
2) Iran
3) Oil situation in Nigeria and Saudi Arabia
4) The Islamic nation's response to the cartoon situation

The Yield Curve continues to be inverted. Shorter term treasuries are yielding higher than longer term treasuries. This could bode negative consequences for the economy in the near-term future (Take a look at the Yield Curve Chart from 2/13/06).
 
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Market-Technicals is a Financial Market Trend and Research blog. Mainly utilizing technical analysis, the research composed is designed to capture market timing techniques, understanding how economic and political forces shape the market, and give speculation as to where the financial market is headed. Encompasing equities, index, sector, ETFs, commodities, and bonds; the expectations are to shed some light as to what "smart money" is thinking.
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