Market-Technicals

Financial Market Analysis

By Shawn R. Carpenter

Monday, February 27, 2006
  EURUSD....

The markets are testing multi-year resistance levels! As we see stocks gain, we must continue to watch if there is any support for this move. Crude Oil fell back to 61.00 on easing fears if the Iran Nuclear crisis (read below). While the S&P 500 rallied to multi-year highs, it sold off towards the close on higher volume. The main concept to watch out for is the pace of this short-term rally. If prices of stocks continue to rise, we might see some capitulation from some of the short sellers, which would send this market into overdrive. Short covering would push prices into rally mode. Although geopolitical tensions seemed to have eased, it is still not clear where we are headed with the Iran nuclear situation. I believe the major players in the situation will tend to view Iran's current negotiations with Russia as a stalling tactic, leading to yet further issues concerning this matter. A continued inverted yield curve will only lead to weakened economic conditions for the economy down the road. As this earnings season begins to wrap up, what will be the immediate influences on the market? Will it be projected corporate earnings based on the American consumer or geopolitical issues. Time will tell...

The above chart shows the EUR/USD contract. We can see that support on the 1.18-1.19 level has been reached. Further oscillators suggest that the price may rebound towards a short-term price of 1.25:

1)The 14 day Relative Strength oscillator is suggesting the 2005 downtrend might be over.

2)The stochastic reading is also pointing a firming of the contract.

It must also be noted that as Venezuela and Iran continue to go against the grain with the United States. Recommendations that the price of Oil be traded in Euro's rather than the US Dollar would have a deep impact on the US public. a It is all speculation at this point, we must continue to watch the markets and make decisions as they pan out.
 
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Market-Technicals is a Financial Market Trend and Research blog. Mainly utilizing technical analysis, the research composed is designed to capture market timing techniques, understanding how economic and political forces shape the market, and give speculation as to where the financial market is headed. Encompasing equities, index, sector, ETFs, commodities, and bonds; the expectations are to shed some light as to what "smart money" is thinking.
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