Market-Technicals

Financial Market Analysis

By Shawn R. Carpenter

Tuesday, January 20, 2009
  Goldcorp (GG)
Following previous posts regarding the potential for Gold to outperform in 2009, Goldcorp is shaping up for a nice short term rally. In order to play this in the very short term, I am looking for the price to rise to 30.31 and 32.21 as the RSI is showing some strength. A stop/loss at 23.40 (roughly the short term trend line) would be advisable to cut risk.

In the medium term, a break of 33.54 would call for more upside. Potential targets can be set at 37.10 and 40.88.
  9:17:00 PM 0 comments
Monday, January 12, 2009
  Walmart...
Walmart has signaled last week that earnings will not be great. Today, the company also mentioned that they do not see any turnaround in the US economy any time soon.

Regarding the chart above, the pricing in the short term was hit based on the earnings outlook. This has in effect validated a bearish flag pattern. A good entry price for a short would be between 51.90 and 53, with targets levels set at 47.20 and 44.78. Stop loss would be at 54.
  1:08:00 PM 0 comments
Saturday, January 10, 2009
  XOM and CVX


This past week, Chevron mentioned that its profit outlook is looking on the downside, as gasoline prices and energy demand has weakened. There are also reports and research pieces out there stating that the major oil players have enough cash on hand to buyout others, thus increasing their market share. CVX and XOM look like they have potential on the downside.
  1:06:00 PM 0 comments
  SPX Update

Where do we go? Are we at a classical juncture called a "bull trap" (where people think the market is so oversold that buying anything seems like a sure thing, only to get caught holding the bag with huge downside in sight)? Or maybe we will rally, given the bullish divergence on the RSI, yet we will still be capped by a the large down move in 2008, around 1042 level.
Time will only tell...
  12:05:00 PM 0 comments
Friday, January 09, 2009
  What are we waiting for? Gold?

I am still bullish on Gold for numerous reasons. First off, technicals still look great! Recent price action in gold suggests we are potentially looking for higher prices in the near future. A break of the 898 and 915 levels will produce a big buy signal. For a short term safe play, 932 and 982.50 would be good target levels. In the medium term, I would look for a break of the 1020 mark.
Also, I do not see any significant follow through in this rally to justify buying for the medium term. I think smart money is waiting for a few things:
  1. Obama to take office...
  2. Size of Obama's stimulus package
  3. Fundamentals still are not there.... We will see more downside with deflation upon us. With people trying to justify the S&P 500 earnings trading at 15 times earnings.. I still do not think we are in calm waters. For one thing, credit markets are STILL FROZEN!
  4. Some sort of transparency on the Treasuries Books. Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC.. and others have tried to get access to this stuff.. but have been denied by the feds. Not sure if they are waiting for the new Administration to take over to provide some direction with the TARP, but we are currently looking at over 50% of GDP being used for a bailout. What is the Government holding? How long will the rest of the world finance this (through bond purchases)?
We are going to see a few quarters of really rough numbers from both the corporate earnings side as well as the economic side. The key thing to watch here is how the market reacts to the numbers. So far, not too good. Yet now is not really a good gauge to test market reaction, as everyone is waiting for Obama to provide some guidance.
While I am not posting every idea I have on this blog... I have seen some pretty interesting opportunities present themselves. Good luck and keep an eye out for the patterns!
  11:21:00 PM 0 comments
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Why Market-Technicals?

Market-Technicals is a Financial Market Trend and Research blog. Mainly utilizing technical analysis, the research composed is designed to capture market timing techniques, understanding how economic and political forces shape the market, and give speculation as to where the financial market is headed. Encompasing equities, index, sector, ETFs, commodities, and bonds; the expectations are to shed some light as to what "smart money" is thinking.
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